Rare Earth Elements

www.rareearthelements.us is a project that I began, and continue, simply because I enjoy the topic and believe it to be important.  The content of the site is not peer reviewed, but I welcome comment.  Though I add to the project at least weekly, it is entirely a labor of pleasure, and thus must grow as time permits between my full time job and my full time graduate studies.  My background is in archaeology, geology, and business, so please pardon any shortcomings in math, mining, or geochemistry.  I am currently working towards a PhD in Space and Planetary Sciences at the University of Arkansas.  This website, as a result, is likely to reflect a bias towards planetary scale processes.  I hope that you enjoy reading this site as much as I have enjoyed writing it.  Above all, I hope that you find it useful. 

Thanks, and all the best to you, Robert Beauford

Rare Earth Elements, 2010 Summary

Robert Beauford, 9 December, 2010

Rare earth elements (REE’s) are a series of 17 elements that have widespread and unique applications in high technology, power generation, communications, and defense industries.  These resources are also pivotal to emergent sustainable energy and carbon alternative technologies.  Global demand for rare earth resources is experiencing extremely fast growth.  Resource production is decades behind projected short term needs.  This situation is unlikely to be corrected without extraordinary measures.

The 17 Rare Earth Elements    Figure 1: The Lanthanide Series plus Scandium and Yttrium

Several aspects of the current global REE picture combine to create a near perfect storm of supply versus demand instability.   Exponential expansion of demand for the materials, in order to maintain critical applications (Humphries, 2010), combined with uncommon ore bodies, slow and difficult production, and an almost completely unprepared marketplace, make for a set of challenges that will require immediate well considered actions if they are to be overcome.  Rare earth elements, compared to many other important metals, are not particularly rare.  Concentrations of rare earth elements, in minable quantities, however, are very uncommon, since the geological concentration of these elements requires extraordinary natural sorting processes.   (Long, Van Gosen, Foley, & Cordier, 2010)  Exploration to locate these uncommon concentrations has been largely lacking for several decades.  A nearly global lack of research and development and an underdeveloped global REE mining industry further complicate the situation.

Historically, demand for these materials has been relatively small, and has been easily filled by only a few mines.   Low cost export of these materials from China has, over the course of the last 15 to 20 years, eliminated what little resource development was taking place in the US and in other parts of the world.  Less than a half dozen US or Canadian mining companies have any substantial REE development infrastructure, and the situation is far more limited in almost every other nation.  Compounding the situation, very little REE related geological research has been funded or performed in recent decades (Haxel, Hedrick, and Orris, 2007).  This is true in terms of both basic scientific research on extraction and refining, as well as in terms of basic field work and resource exploration.  Outside of China, few mining industry scientists have any specialized training or expertise in the REE resource field (Long et al., 2010).

These limitations do not reflect failures on the part of any individual or institution.  Rapidly expanding uses for these materials have created unexpected exponential global increases in demand.  The list of recently emerging technologies and industries that are critically dependent on rare earth elements is essentially a snapshot of modern technological society.  This includes computers, wind power and other advanced post-carbon power generation technologies, fiber optic communications, lasers, LCD and CRT monitors and televisions, energy efficient compact fluorescent light bulbs, GPS technology, microelectronics and sensors, CD and DVD drives, MPEG players, digital cameras, most optical lenses, audio components, most communications and entertainment devices, as well as satellites and satellite communications.  The energy efficient high capacity rechargeable batteries that make possible technologies such as cell phones, portable computers, hybrid cars, and virtually every other electronic device that does not remain plugged directly in to a wall, are also entirely dependent upon a sustained source of these materials.  These are only major examples.  More demands emerge for these materials each year.  Most of these applications cannot be replaced with any currently existing substitutable technology or materials (Haxel et al., 2007)

Inexpensive resources from China have kept prices and supplies relatively stable for over 20 years, but this could change rapidly (Hedrick, 1998; Haxel et al., 2007).  2009 global production of all REE’s combined was only 126,230 metric tons.   China, essentially the only global supplier, produced 120,000 metric tons, or over 95% of the total.  This would not be a serious problem if China was interested in exporting the resource.  With Chinese demand for REE’s growing at a rate of 10% or more per year, however, the country is already balking at exporting any of the resource, and has made comments encouraging others to see to their own needs before Chinese sources are made unavailable.  China has already substantially reduced exports and has made strong indications that they wish to discontinue or make further substantial reductions in export of REE raw materials to other countries (Humphries, 2010).  For the sake of international consideration and global economic stability, China continues some exports, but as their internal industrial and manufacturing demands for the materials continue to rise, further reductions are likely to come.

126,230 metric tons may sound like a lot of metal but, for a significant resource metal, it is not.  For comparison, according to USGS Mineral Yearbook statistics, world copper production in 2009 was over 15 million metric tons, and world aluminum production was over 49 million metric tons.  2010 world demand for rare earth elements, about 134,000 metric tons, has already exceeded supply.  Existing previously mined stockpiles have made up the difference between supply and demand in the short term, but growth in demand is expected to exceed 10% per year in coming years (Humphries, 2010).  This means that, unless profound and immediate changes are made over the short term, someone is going to do without. 

It should further be considered, that though they are found together, and are referred to by a common name, the term ‘rare earth elements’ represents 17 different metals.  80 to 99% of the production of most ore bodies comprises only 4 of these metals, La, Ce, Pr, and Nd.  Several of the elements that have experienced the fastest demand growth are among those least represented in production volume (Haxel et al., 2006).  Total currently recorded global reserves, of all REE metals combined, is only 99 million tons.  Almost none of these in-ground reserves can be brought to market in less than several years, and bringing any substantial percentage of them into production in less than a decade will require outstanding effort and governmental assistance.  Total current known reserves are minimal when considered in terms of current exploding demand levels.

Challenges emerge in quantifying the historical mineral and commercial abundances of these elements because of their relative obscurity and lack of significant economic or technological importance prior to very recent history.  Critical Chinese production records, for instance, are lacking in USGS government documents prior to 1997.  It is entirely possible that these types of records do not exist, in any meaningful sense, until shortly before that date.  In addition to the fact that government records lack quantitative detail, the metals are treated in aggregate in most economic and mineral industry publications, making qualitative changes in distribution of demand similarly difficult to trace.  Ironically, even for mineral and metal industry researchers and officials at the governmental level, it is easier to describe some things about the future of this industry than about its past.  What we know is easily summarized: 

• Demand already exceeds annual production by a substantial percentage (Humphries, 2010). 
• The previously mined stockpiles of the resource are currently filling the gap, but are inadequate to meet more than short term demands (Humphries, 2010).
• Annual growth in global demand currently exceeds 10% for some REEs and is not expected to decline (Hedrick, 2008).
• It is expected that China will absorb essentially all of the world’s production within a few years (Humphries, 2010).
• New production will take substantial time and money to develop without substantial government intervention and international cooperation (Long et al., 2010).
• Energy independence, high technology, defense readiness, and environmentally responsible technologies are critically dependent upon this type of intervention and cooperation.

Projected demand for 2008 to 2040 is based on mid-term annual increase in demand of less than 8%.  This figure was derived from historical production data (above), combined with current consumption data, and recent and projected industry growth data from Humphries, 2010.  Non-China projected production, from 2009 forward, is hypothetical.  It illustrates an immediate 6% annual upward growth in production despite a negative growth curve from 1998 to 2009 (above), and despite a minimum projected period of 7 years to bring additional resources into production (Long, 2010).  The obvious inadequacy of the 6% growth curve illustrates that exceptional measures must be brought to bear in the very short term.

Though China produces 95 to 97 percent of the worlds REE supplies, only 36% of the proven global resources are located in that country, and several other nations appear to have larger resource bases, even with current levels of exploration.  Time to market, however, is a major issue in considering proven reserves and previously mined deposits of these metals, and an even larger issue in considering unproven, but known, resources.  Development time for proven reserves may be 5 to 10 years, and development may require decades or longer for other deposits.  Even with necessary time expenditure, the cost-to-market of many deposits makes them only economically mineable when considered in terms of a co-product, such as iron, that is  capable of generating additional mine revenue (Long et al., 2010).

Like many important technologies, REE resource development has complex environmental implications that are both positive and negative.  Mining REEs produces all of the sorts of localized environmental disruption associated with digging large holes in the ground, and it produces, from some less desirable ore bodies, mine tailings that are somewhat high in radioactive elements that can be concentrated by the same geological processes that gather together minable quantities of REEs (Long et al., 2010; Hedrick, 2008).  On the other hand, it provides rechargeable batteries, wind power generation, electronic media that reduce tree cutting and paper garbage, hybrid automobiles, and fuel efficiency in gasoline vehicles, and hundreds of other energy efficient and increasingly ecologically responsible products.

Sustainability and the Global REE Supply

If a globally sustainable REE marketplace is to be developed, a multifaceted approach is called for.  This means recycling, reuse, substitution, expanded recovery, technological innovation, government incentives, and international cooperation.

Because of the unique characteristics of some of these metals, substitute materials for many REE applications are unavailable.  Even so, alternative technologies may help to take the pressure off of REE demand if given enough time.  Recycling and reuse, though they currently contribute only a tiny fraction to global annual metal production (source), have enormous potential.   Several recent news stories, such as one found in the October 24^th 2010 New York Times, suggest that Japan is aggressively exploring ‘urban mining’ of used electronics to produce recyclable REE metals.  Various news reports indicate that urban concentrations of used and disposed electronics may be equivalent sources, in terms of productivity, to the most productive mining centers on the planet.  This comparison can be attributed to several documents produced by the Japanese National Institute for Materials Science.  If this astounding claim is accurate, and if the principle can be extended to other urban areas, the world’s ‘garbage’ may now represent a substantial, though not currently accounted for, percentage of global strategic metal resources.

Enhanced exploration and recovery are important mid to long-range options for improving the global REE resource base.   Additional reserves are known, and according to the USGS, many more are suspected (Long et al., 2010).  The US government is actively encouraging resource development.   5 pieces of legislation were introduced in Congress in 2010 (Humphries, 2010), and a number of US government educational documents were produced.  To what extent these measures will be effective in making positive changes is not yet known.

Because the potentials for REE market development and expansion far outweigh the benefits of providing small quantities at higher prices, assisting other countries in bringing REE supplies to market, through technology sharing, should also be strongly considered.  National or international governmental scale development strategies may also include development loans or loan guarantees, expedited industry permitting, government sponsorship of research and development programs, and other industry support.

Individuals may act by choosing to responsibly recycle all electronics, invest in US and Canadian REE development companies, encourage representatives and other elected officials to support REE related legislation and development initiatives, or become actively involved in the industry through educational or career choices.

Bibliography

Hedrick, James B. 1998. Rare-Earth Metals, Metal Prices in the United States through 1998, US Geological Survey. Available at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/metal_prices/

Long, K.R., Van Gosen, B.S., Foley, N.K., and Cordier, Daniel. 2010. The principal rare earth elements deposits of the United States—A summary of domestic deposits and a global perspective: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report - 2010. Available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5220/

Haxel G, Hedrick J, Orris J. 2006. Rare earth elements critical resources for high technology. Reston (VA): United States Geological Survey. USGS Fact Sheet: 087‐02. Available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2002/fs087-02/fs087-02.pdf

Cordier, D.J., Hedrick, J.B.. 2008. Rare Earths. United States Department of the Interior. United States Geological Survey. 2008 Minerals Yearbook.  Available at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/rare_earths/index.html#myb

Hedrick, J.B. (1997, 2002, 2007, 2010) Rare Earths. United States Department of the Interior. United States Geological Survey. (1997, 2002, 2007, 2010) Minerals Yearbook.  Available at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/rare_earths/index.html#myb

Humphries, Marc. 2010. Rare Earth Elements: the Global Supply Chain CRS Report For Congress September 30, 2010. U.S. Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service. 7-5700. R41347. Available at www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R41347.pdf

Recommended 

Rare Earth

Element Links

United States Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Yearbooks and Other References

USGS November, 2010, Report on United States REE Deposits and Global Perspective

Congressional Research Service September, 2010, REE Global Supply Chain Report

U.S. Department of Energy December, 2010, Report titled 'Critical Materials Strategy'

Chinese Society of Rare Earths Deputy Director's Report, April, 2010

 U.S. Government Accountability Office REE Briefing

British Geological Survey, Rare Earth Elements, June, 2010 

British Geological Survey 

Rare Earth Element Global Resource Map  

British Geological Survey Rare Earth Element Beginners Guide 

Rare Earth Industry and Technology Association 

Rare Earth Web Portal: Raremetalblog.com

International Rare Earth Summit 2011

International Rare Earth Summit 2010

Rare Earth Crisis: Lack of Intellectual Infrastructure

 British Geological Survey Minerals Risk List

USGS REE Resources in Afghanistan